"With average web growth of 29 percent, 2013 was a great year for e-commerce, and 2014 promises to be even better,” - Sucharita Mulpuru, Forrester.

The beginning of the year is always a time for summary of past year and speculations for upcoming 12 months. Here are trends predicted for upcoming 2014.

Huffington Post predicts:

- growth of mobile e-commerce ("Black Friday was "Mobile Friday" with almost 40% of all online shopping done on mobile devices. This trend will continue in 2014 as more consumers are empowered to use their phones and tablets to shop anytime, anywhere.");

- free & faster shipping ("It's now a must to offer free or faster shipping options. Businesses now have the option to partner with companies that work with retailers to offer customers free or faster shipping.");

- business without borders ("2014 will be a year of exponential growth in global e-commerce. (...) retailers in search of sales growth are increasingly going global by expanding their online shopping operations in foreign countries. Astonishing numbers such as the $5.7 billion sales on China's Singles' Day, the equivalent of Cyber Monday in the U.S., have been a wake-up call to many businesses that have not looked outside their borders.");

- content marketing ("A recent study shows that 82% of marketers plan to increase their budgets for content marketing in 2014.");

- growth of guided discovery ("To make shoppers' lives easier in 2014, more and more online businesses will start engineering the right mix of "guided discovery" to provide targeted and welcome suggestions that help consumers make purchases.");

- consumer-driven demand and personalization ("In 2014 we will see more businesses empower customers with the ability to personalize, modify, or design the products that they want to purchase. More businesses will start to implement 3D printing technology to enable and speed up this customization.");

- it's still about the brand ("In 2014, businesses will go back to the basics: building a strong brand.").

Sime predicts:

- use of big data ("2014 will be the year that e-retailers and other businesses will fight for talent that know their way around data. The good ones are not easy to find – being a mix of a merchandiser, a marketeer and a data geek is not a common combination.");

- importance of content ("High-quality, SEO-friendly and highly engaging content for enhanced user experience will be what matters for e-commerce websites in 2014.");

- cross-channel e-commerce ("Cross-channel is not a buzz-word anymore. Seamless browsing, saving and shopping across platforms is a no-brainer. Market growth will further drive investment in platforms and solutions, but mainly for brands with large budgets. (...) I also think we will see more M-commerce in 2014.");

- mobile POS in stores ("Mobile point-of-sale devices are no longer just a tool for small merchants to accept card payments (...) Today, more and more retailers equip their staff with POS devices that enable payments without going to the tills.");

- significant increase in number of e-stores ("With lowered barriers of entry we will see lots of smaller companies are entering into the fray. Solutions such as Shopify, WooCommerce and Tictail are enabling this.").

Forrester predicts:

- same-day shipping ("Shipping “is the Achilles heel" of online shopping. (...) Consumers expect to have free shipping and expect retailers to subsidize free shipping. Shipping logistics are key to e-commerce but face deep difficulties. (...) The cost savior for multichannel retailers: shipping to their stores since shipping to a commercial location is cheaper than a residential address. (...) omnichannel investments such as ship-to-store, click-and-collect and other delivery mechanisms that leverage the retailer’s network of stores");

- rise of mobile ("Retailers rank mobile as their top priority, spanning projects from responsive design to mobile site optimization and tablet redesign. (...) The lesson: by creating “mobile unique” experiences that meet real customer needs, retailers will enhance their chances of their mobile success and create distinct competitive advantage.");

- dynamic pricing ("Everyday low prices dies “because the web always has a lower price.”  A third of consumers say they use their smartphones to research and compare prices in-store, and many expect to use their phone for price research even more in the future.").

Business 2 Community predicts:

- mobile shopping to go mainstream ("Any retailers who have neglected to optimise their website for mobile usage will soon be left behind. (...) 56% of traffic to the John Lewis website on Christmas Eve came from mobile devices, while this rose to a massive 76% on Christmas Day.";

- online shopping will continue to grow and grow ("Showing the rise and rise of eCommerce, online shopping in December broke all previous records with more than three billion visits to shopping websites taking place.");

- sales starting sooner ("Gone are the days of traditional January sales. With the rise of mobile and tablet usage and the increasing dominance of eCommerce, retailers got wise and brought their sales forward.");

- more retailers to offer click and collect services ("Using a mobile allows shoppers to purchase items on the go, but unlike shopping in the traditional sense, they still have to wait for their items to be delivered. This is set to change in 2014 with more and more retailers adopting click and collect.");

- faster delivery times ("Many customers still like the convenience of having goods delivered to them. (...) 2014 will see faster delivery times – 68% of retailers currently offer next day delivery. (...) 2014 could also see Sunday deliveries becoming the norm too – whilst something that is relatively unheard of but something that Amazon has now begun to trial to its Amazon Prime members.").

The Drum predicts:

- tablet-first design will become the norm ("Tablets are fast becoming the internet-enabled device of choice and they’re set to overtake PCs by 2016. (...) it’s clear that retailers will have to start considering tablet devices as most important from a design perspective.");

- wearables will go mainstream ("Pebble, Galaxy Gear, Fitbit, Nike+ and so on. 2014 should see it cross over into the mainstream. (...) Personal Area Networks will come to the fore again as networks comprising numerous wearable sensors linked to the internet via smartphones become a more feasible reality.");

- location and identification will enable personalised, seamless retail journeys ("iBeacons are essentially ‘GPS for indoors’, which allow for personalised, micro-location–based notifications and alerts. (...) The technology has the power to revolutionise retail in an exciting way – expect to see widespread adoption over the next 12 months.");

- the mWallet war will go on ("Over the last couple of years, a number of industry consortia have got together to try and come up with a definitive mobile wallet solution – identification and verification by card proxies, phone numbers, user names – the list goes on. The format war still won’t be won in 2014, and there still won’t be a convincing reason why customers should use mWallets, or why retailers should invest in that sort of system.");

- consumers will learn the value of data and privacy ("Consumers are becoming increasingly savvy about their digital presence, and are more aware than ever before of the value of their personal data to advertisers. (...) We shouldn’t underestimate the impact of the NSA leaks and ‘intrusive’ initiatives such as the Tesco facial recognition screens. Privacy scares will become the norm for new technologies and businesses will need to tread carefully and make sure they fully explain the consumer benefit of digital technology if they’re to avoid being painted as ‘big brother’ with sinister motives.");

- social networks shift towards private networks ("Younger users in particular performed a sudden about-turn in 2013, and are now the most switched on to the fact that what they post online will live forever on social networks. And, of course, their parents are on Facebook now, which means that there will be a permanent shift among youths to more private, ephemeral, ‘narrow-cast’ messaging via services such as Snapchat or Whatsapp.");

- consumer technology will become enterprise technology ("Over 2014, it will become increasingly obvious that adopting consumer technology on an industrial level is the way forward – it has superior UX, it’s more familiar and preferred by users, it’s easier to use, easier to replace, and easier to develop for – all at a lower cost.");

- 1 in 5 in-store checkouts will take place on a mobile or tablet device by 2015 ("There will be a sea change in the way both consumers and retailers experience the purchase journey. Businesses will implement multi-device solutions which offer the same slick technology to sales staff as they currently offer to customers, empowering employees to increase sales and enhance operational performance.").

Forbes predicts:

- subscritpion services ("Consumers increasing expectations of instant gratification - and the growing proliferation of mobile devices - are further driving demand for subscription-based digital products and services.").

Nielsen predicts:

- shoppers want e-commerce experience tailored to their needs ("Shoppers now expect retailers to be available 24/7 in different formats. So while e-commerce remains a small part of total sales, retailers need to tap into this “omni channel” that spreads from in-store to online to keep shoppers engaged. Retailers can’t assume that their customers will seek them out with their e-commerce needs. Instead, stores must search for new formats and opportunities that meet shoppers’ digital desires.".

As we can see, most predictions for 2014 surround the same topics: m-commerce, m-POS, cross-border e-commerce, shipping and privacy.

According to CNET, PayPal President David Marcus states that "Eventually, mobile will be everything. (...) Mobile is the territory where we want to lead and be best in class across the board".

"Marcus implied that PayPal was able to overcome numerous competitors by making strides to tap into all of these different platforms. Just one example: Marcus asserted that PayPal was the first to be able to integrate itself into Apple Safari and utilize the iPhone camera to scan bar codes to enable purchase power."

"Marcus' comments also suggested that PayPal doesn't dramatically refresh its interfaces and infrastructures -- compared to some other e-commerce and even social media companies -- in consideration of its merchant base. (...) it reflects a common trend (and even roadblock) for mobile and digital payments over the past few years: Merchants just can't afford the time or money to invest routinely in new technologies, especially when they can't be certain that customers will respond."

Which is supported by recent news about PayPal's new improved checkout experience. "PayPal's new In-Context Checkout lets shoppers pay using their PayPal account without being directed to an external PayPal site. PayPal claims this will help retailers convert more customers. Shoppers can expect to start seeing In-Context Checkout by June, though large retailers will be the only ones with initial access."

In other news (which supports David Marcus predictions), Apple is rumored to move into mobile payments. "Apple is making internal and external moves to expand its ability to handle mobile payments, stepping more deeply into a market where rivals would include eBay's PayPal, Google and niche specialists like Square and Stripe."

Also, recently published report about mobile payments and transactions, shows a increase in mobile payments market.

"Mobile transactions will account for about 2% of all credit and debit card volume in the United States in 2013, and 4% globally, according to BI Intelligence estimates. The numbers seem low, but for the last five years mobile transactions have experienced 118% annual average growth in the U.S. alone. Africa and Asia-Pacific actually see a much larger share of mobile-driven transactions."

"Smartphone users are becoming aware of mobile wallets, payments apps, and QR-scanning apps and using them to facilitate offline and online purchases — most famously at Starbucks coffee stores. However, overall usage is still low."

According to recent reports, 25% of global e-commerce traffic is now coming from mobile devices.

"E-commerce traffic from smartphones and tablets rose 3% in the last quarter. Tablets make up about two-thirds of m-commerce traffic (or about 15% of all e-commerce traffic), while smartphones account for around one-third of m-commerce traffic and roughly 10% of all e-commerce traffic. (...) The average order value for a tablet is $139, while for PCs it is $136 and for smartphones it is $114."

In other news, in 2013, 15 % of mobile media users made some form of mobile payment to make a purchase. The largest group of these users did so via a mobile wallet, mainly in NFC technology.

"Mobile money users are 26% more likely to purchase via mobile. Globally, 91 % made some form of mobile purchase in 2013 as opposed to 65 % of all mobile consumers."

"In Africa, the ‘mobile-only’ culture means the mobile money account is the bank account. Globally, 66 % of mobile media users use some form of mobile banking. In Kenya, for example, it’s 92 %."

"A quarter of users claim they don’t make mobile payments because ‘the network is too slow’. (...) those connected to 4G networks are much more engaged: almost two in three (64 %) have made a mobile payment."

The Argentinian government has decided to restrict purchases made via the internet (two purchases of goods from foreign e-commerce websites each year) to reduce the amount of USD leaving the country and it applies to goods that enter Argentina using the postal service.

"And, the Administration of Public Revenue (AFIP) has also set a value limit that means consumers will be able to buy only $25 worth of goods from websites abroad each year. (...) consumers buying more from abroad than the two-item, $25 limit will face a 50% import tax on anything they buy, including shipping costs."

"Cross-border online shoppers will have to submit a sworn statement or affidavit to the government — stating what has been purchased, attaching a printed receipt and including a tracking number — before items can be removed from customs."

"Cross-border online shopping is beginning to soar in Argentina, with about 1.5m Argentinians purchasing items from foreign websites last year, about double the number shopping cross-border in 2012."

"The government was already beginning to tighten controls on cross-border shopping last year, when a 35% import tax was imposed on purchases made with foreign credit cards."

"Argentinians looking to buy more than this amount will have to register with the government as importers, thereby complying with the country’s import regulations, the General Import Regime. As a result, Argentinian citizens who want to buy goods over the web must first get an approval from the government. The initiative is aimed at reducing the amount of USD leaving the country and it applies to goods that enter Argentina using the postal service."

Fraud is still one of major issues driving customers away from e-commerce. They don't trust foreign sites to handle their payment details.

According to new reports, in Netherlands, there were 28.000 reported online fraud complaints, majority involved phishing cases, where fraudsters send a seemingly official email to try and gain access to consumers' banking details. It is said that the 28,000 complaints are only the tip of the iceberg, with no more than 10 % of fraud attempts actually reported.

In UK, fraud dropped by 11% "but it still remains at a much higher rate than in pre-recessionary times", which is proof of the positive preventative impact of counter fraud measures such as data sharing.  Plastic cards are now the product most commonly targeted by fraudsters, up by 24% from the levels of 2012 and accounting for 30% of all confirmed fraud in 2013.

CBEC describes prevention techniques to counter the fraud. "More and more high profile data breaches are now being reported. (...) Research suggests that incidents of identity fraud now occur every three seconds and this alarming trend is having a huge impact on costs for merchants" Fraudsters operating online can prove to be more difficult to detect and with tendency to use foreign merchants as a testing ground for compromised cards. "Authenticating foreign customers has always been a challenge for cross-border merchants, particularly where those merchants operate across multiple geographies, often due to the limited customer and trend information they have on those markets. (...) It is vital that cross-border merchants have access to detailed payment and fraud trend information for each local market they are serving or looking to enter."

ThreatMetrix in new report states that "financial institutions must become more proactive when it comes to collecting data on customers’ digital behaviour to fight financial losses through criminals’ growing use of cross-channel fraud. (...) Gaps in the bank's security profile leave many institutions exposed to cross-channel attacks."

To fight with online fraud, Paymetric creates XiVerify, which promotes a secure environment by removing all credit card data from the merchant environment. "Merchants no longer transmit or store credit card numbers, yet can continue to conduct business as usual with ‘tokens’ that span the entirety of the customer relationship."